Beyond the Chiefs: Where’s the Value in the Super Bowl Odds?

The Kansas City Chief’s winning machine is doing what everyone assumed it would this season – perhaps a little better than expected. Andy Reid’s team wins games where it dominates, wins games where it doesn’t, wins ugly, wins in overtime – it just wins.

Obviously, the Chiefs are favorites for Super Bowl LIX. At the time of writing, the best odds you’ll get are somewhere in the region of +400, with some as low as +350. That will tempt some bettors, undoubtedly. But many will also see it as unexciting.

In terms of implied probability, the Chiefs at odds of +400 have a 20% chance of winning the Super Bowl, so, you know, it’s more likely that the eventual winner is the “someone else” that falls into the 80%. Who that “someone else” is becomes a matter for debate.

Yet, when comparing NFL odds across different sportsbooks, the question of value comes up. Which teams’ odds offer value as we pass the mid-point of the regular season? Below, we will try to highlight some of the teams that may fit the bill.
However, please be aware that this exercise is not about tipping teams to go all the way but about suggesting teams who have a shot – even a slight one – and have some value apparent in their odds.

Minnesota Vikings

Odds as high as +2500

The Vikings started the season 5-0, but things looked a lot shakier when they returned from the London Series, losing to the Lions (hardly a shock, given Detroit’s form) and the Rams. They got back on track again with a win over the Colts. Yes, they have flaws, but their remaining schedule makes them nailed on for the Playoffs in our view. Once they get there, the current odds might look quite big.

Houston Texans

Odds as high as +2800

We aren’t completely sold on the Texans, but they are probably a good example of a team that may offer value without the bettor being convinced they’ll win it all. It should be noted that Houston’s remaining schedule is fairly brutal, with games against the likes of the Chiefs and Ravens over Christmas week likely to be pivotal. They’ll do enough to win the weak AFC South, though, guaranteeing a Playoff berth.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Odds as high as +3500

The Steelers probably don’t score enough to be talked about as potential champions, but their defense and ability to grind out results is up there with the best in the league. It’s almost unfashionable to talk about them as contenders, but they have a nice stretch of games across late November and December that should see them nail down a Playoff spot, and they have a kind of grit that means nobody will want to play them in January.

Atlanta Falcons

Odds as high as +3300

One of the interesting things about the Falcons is there is a lot of variation in the odds, with some sportsbooks going as low as +2000. It’s still unlikely that the Falcons will go all the way, but it’s not impossible. We also think they’ll take the NFC South with ease, and they may have “won” the trade deadline.

San Francisco 49ers

Odds as high as +1100

Okay, finishing with a kind of joker in the pack. Everyone knows the 49ers have been disappointing this season, and their erratic form may cost them. Yet, they began the season as very close second-favorites behind the Chiefs, with some expecting a repeat Super Bowl matchup. Now that their odds have doubled are they worth a punt? Many will avoid them, but they are also exactly the type of candidate we mean to highlight in this exercise: a team whose odds are higher than their true worth, at least on paper.